Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 22.108124 23.367392 24.696764 26.210960 27.895709 29.721881 31.863615
2025-12-28 20.398715 22.171479 24.139942 26.511309 29.323421 32.595560 36.759157
2026-01-04 18.932726 20.908113 23.166789 25.981102 29.454654 33.689443 39.392736
2026-01-11 18.296929 20.498645 23.084552 26.410424 30.677758 36.130482 43.927482
2026-01-18 17.682644 20.041077 22.872197 26.610997 31.570411 38.177318 48.165807
2026-01-25 16.888026 19.299928 22.241309 26.202105 31.589358 39.002157 50.724181
2026-02-01 16.176642 18.615094 21.628478 25.754009 31.488496 39.608719 52.989837
2026-02-08 15.319217 17.703305 20.673656 24.782484 30.572672 38.924554 53.067612
2026-02-15 15.136367 17.634860 20.797180 25.260700 31.724382 41.403352 58.756446
2026-02-22 14.882527 17.458587 20.763045 25.509090 32.548608 43.452809 64.084627
2026-03-01 14.314453 16.848658 20.120885 24.861431 31.978123 43.195073 65.033061
2026-03-08 13.505418 15.898404 18.989054 23.468012 30.195086 40.805006 61.484051
2026-03-15 13.134056 15.566311 18.749861 23.445868 30.678045 42.513240 67.075321
2026-03-22 12.854206 15.350245 18.666629 23.658406 31.573937 45.114193 75.543719
2026-03-29 12.392931 14.865260 18.179366 23.228376 31.378377 45.711714 79.656726
2026-04-05 12.218438 14.759345 18.213744 23.580035 32.498767 48.935410 91.674846
2026-04-12 12.000951 14.582464 18.134145 23.744492 33.310128 51.701442 104.063736
2026-04-19 11.653657 14.210799 17.754365 23.409244 33.204718 52.552157 111.109389
2026-04-26 11.320174 13.846478 17.369194 23.041016 33.004069 53.165014 117.796756
2026-05-03 10.884436 13.325349 16.735176 22.239536 31.948289 51.736950 116.303851
2026-05-10 10.803661 13.302668 16.834935 22.634586 33.145986 55.639330 138.849343
2026-05-17 10.676282 13.208039 16.821522 22.839368 34.001775 58.935928 163.111495
2026-05-24 10.365116 12.840068 16.382138 22.304826 33.363838 58.379089 166.923918